Who will win Sunday night’s final of the 2026 World Cup in New York between Spain and Argentina?
According to Football Meets Data, La Roja of Spain have a 59% chance of winning their second World Cup on the day.
Argentina lag behind at 41%.
This means the final is certainly not seen as a foregone conclusion, but Spain does start with a clear advantage in the calculations.
Opta also reached a similar conclusion. It handed Spain a 56.05% chance to be world champions again, compared to 43.95% for Argentina.
The differences between the two models are small, but the direction is the same: Spain are the favourites, Argentina the challengers.
That should come as no surprise. La Roja made a particularly stable impression throughout the tournament. Defensively, Spain conceded hardly anything, and even in the semi-final against France, they were barely troubled.
The 2-0 victory against Les Bleus may not have been spectacular, but it was remarkably mature. Belgium remain the only country that have managed to score against Spain.
Argentina had a much tougher time in their semi-final. Against England, things looked like they were going wrong for a long time, but in the closing stages Lionel Messi turned the game around with two assists. Enzo Fernandez and Lautaro Martinez scored the goals, allowing Argentina to advance to the final.
That is precisely why the team remain dangerous. Spain may have the best odds according to the models, but with Messi, Argentina still have a player who can change everything in a single moment.
