The World Cup qualification group that is causing the most ruckus anywhere is the one where Nigeria belong.
Currently, as the last group matches is upon us, the standing of the top 3 countries is like this:
1. Benin 17 pts +5
2. South Africa 15pts +3
3. Nigeria 14pts +3
Of these three, only Nigeria has the chances of qualifying for WC directly by topping the group and also for a winding playoff programme. And that’s a ‘blessing’ of not getting enough points against Zimbabwe, garnering only 2 points in 2 matches.
On the flip side, if we had whole 6 points or even 4 points, we won’t become, like Dave Umahi, professors in practice but in the hazy and crazy field football permutations and probabilities.
If only we had taken care of matters when we met Lesotho, Zimbabwe and South Africa at home and Benin on a neutral ground, we’d have been the first country to qualify for the WC in Africa.
As it were now, there is an impasse in the group because South Africa is depending on Nigeria to beat Benin so that a win over Rwanda will get it the automatic ticket of the group.
On the other hand, Nigeria needs South Africa not to win against Rwanda so that a 1-0 win over Benin will suffice. It gets complex from here because Nigeria will have exactly the same stats with Benin but the 1-0 win gets the Super Eagles the qualification on head to head the away goals rule, which is still in effect in Africa.
If Nigeria beat Benin 2-1, then both teams will really be dead on and the 2 countries will be pulled apart on the fair play rule or toss of coin.
If Nigeria beat Benin by 3-2, then Benin will have the edge on the away goals rule.
Meanwhile, Benin can nick the ticket by simply playing a draw in Nigeria as long as South Africa don’t beat Rwanda by more than 2 goals.
Regarding the playoff spots, 2 playoff spots are surely going to Gabon and Cameroun, leaving 2 to be contested between DR Congo, Uganda, Niger and Nigeria, that is, if Nigeria end up in second place.
These prognostications take cognisance of the deductions of points and goals gained from teams in second place positions in matches against the bottom placed teams.
This is because Eritrea withdrew in Group E and in order to put all teams on the same pedestal of 5-team groups and select the 4 best second placed teams, the stats involving the bottom placed teams and second placed teams in all the teams were de-factored.
DR Congo will host Sudan today, which is likely to be a win for them. A drop of points by DR Congo is good news for Nigeria.
As for Uganda, they travel to Algeria, who have already qualified for WC. Ordinarily, Uganda are not supposed to be any sort of trouble for Algeria but a win for a determined Uganda, using all their long-distance running tenacity, against a country that can afford not to take today’s match seriously cannot be far from the realms of impossibility.
Niger have finished and is on 15 points and +1 GD. So, Burkina Faso, with a finished 15 points and +6 GD, are the country Nigeria is chasing.
This is because Nigeria currently have 14 points and they beat Benin today, they go to 17 points but the 2 points against Zimbabwe will be deducted, meaning Nigeria will be on 15 points and at least +3 GD but must win by at least by 4 goals to have +7 GD and outwit Burkina Faso.
So, what does Nigeria need to do to win. It is tricky here because the coach of Benin is Gernot Rohr, who used to be the coach of the Super Eagles.
So, he supposedly knows Nigeria too well but it also means that Nigeria knows him equally well. Rohr is naturally conservative in tactics. He will play ugly to get what he wants but it has often backfired on him like when CAR defeated us at home.
So, he will load his defence to the hilt against Nigeria and will want to hit us on the counter. That said, Benin must want to win because, if Benin draws, it might lose the ticket on GD to South Africa.
So, this is how I think Nigeria should play:
1. While Eric Chelle can be said to have turned the 2026 WC fortunes of the Super Eagles around, garnering 11 points from 5 games; his impact on the team is minimal. Nigeria is not scoring enough goals. The fans are enduring the team rather than enjoying it. If goals had come in droves, even at 2 goals per game, Nigeria won’t be having this discussion. So, he has to go for broke for once.
2. This is why I think William Troost-Ekong and Moses Simon should not start this game.
3. Knowing Rohr pretty well, he will exploit Ekong’s flailing pace. I saw the way a Sotho guy skinned him one on one for pace in Polokwane and it was messy. Already, Ekong cost us dear (5 points) against Zimbabwe in Uyo and South Africa in Bloemfontein. The handwriting is on the wall. Benjamin Fredrick, should be pairing Calvin Bassey in the heart of that defence. We have more than enough feet to play from the flanks, even in the absence of Ola Aina.
4. Frank Onyeka should start in alongside Wilfred Ndidi as midfield fulcrum while Alhassan Yusuf could play ahead of them. Were Raphael Onyedika available, I would have said Onyeka and Onyedika. The reason is that we need Alex Iwobi to go to the left like he does very well for Fulham. It’s a tad shame that Chelle like his predecessors before him hardly uses the club profiles of our players to deploy them in the national team. While Ademola Lookman is still trying to regain his form, he can also play from the right, more so Chelle has often failed to use right wing plays. Victor Osimhen remains upfront.
5. SE need early goal but if not don’t panic. Chelle should not make panic substitutions. For once too, let have a clean sheet.
6. We need aerial balls in the box. We don’t use the aerial prowess of Osimhen well enough. And Tolu Arokodare is there, we have the heights but Akor Adams might have just put himself behind Osimhen in attack because of his beautiful take on the Sotho defender that led to a goal in Polokwane.
7. Someone should ban the SE from playing sideways passing. Play with urgency get the ball moving forward. Don’t always wait for your opponents to withdraw and reset their defence when you take the ball away from them or Nwabali goalie gets the ball. Nwabali should focus on launching attacks immediately instead of trying to remonstrate with opponents. If you throw mud, you lose ground. Launch attack quickly and play with urgency.
8. As for the goalie, the less said the better but I hope his head in now properly screwed on. Nigerians should also learn not to troll their players online when they don’t perform well.
9. We need to target at least that 4-0 win because, even if South Africa are not winning and we think our 1-0 is okay, goals get scored in the last minute, which can be done by South Africa against Rwanda or Benin against Nigeria. Just imagine if we weren’t leading 2-0 against Lesotho! 4-0 is extremely difficult but not impossible, after all we beat the same Benin 3-0 last year under Eguavoen in the AFCON qualifiers.
10. I hope there will be someone monitoring situation in at the Hocine Ait Ahmed Stadium stadium, Tizi Ouzou, Algeria and Mbobela Stadium, Mpumalanga
In all, manage you expectations. There will always be life without Super Eagles or World Cup qualification.
By Olabunmi Akinsemola
